Impacts of the Advanced Clean Fleets Regulation on the Trucking Industry, Consumers, and the Economy
Prepared by Capitol Matrix Consulting | October 2024
The Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation, adopted in April 2023, aims to phase out gas- and diesel-powered trucks in California by 2042, with a gradual shift to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) starting in 2026. However, CARB’s withdrawal of a federal waiver in January 2025 means key enforcement provisions are currently paused. The regulation could raise trucking costs by up to 80%, increasing household expenses by $2,500 annually. Hidden costs like lost fuel tax revenue and reduced efficiency add further strain, while lithium battery fire risks may drive up insurance and safety concerns. With trucking moving 75% of California’s cargo, these changes could disrupt the economy and increase prices across the board.
CFCA Sponsored Reports
Impacts of a Statewide Ban on New Construction and Upgrades to Fueling Establishments in California
Prepared by Capitol Matrix Consulting | May 2023
Given the emerging movement to ban new or upgraded fueling establishments in California, this report has been commissioned by the California Fuels and Convenience Alliance to analyze (1) the economic contributions of the Fueling and Convenience industry, and (2) the economic impacts that adoption of a statewide ban - or widespread adoption of local bans - would have on the California economy.
Industry Studies
California's Oil and Gasoline Conundrum: A Blueprint to Address Californias Gasoline Insecurity, High Prices and Avert More Pipeline Refinery Closures
By Michael A. Mische, James W. Rector, Joseph B. Silvi | December 2025
California faces immediate risks to gasoline supply due to declining in-state production, refinery closures, and an imminent northbound pipeline collapse. The analysis in this study proposes actionable steps for California to implement to “navigate its way out of this government-created crisis”. This research dives into:
California’s Oil Conundrum and Reliance on Foreign Suppliers
Disappearing California Refineries
The Collapse of California Pipelines
Consequences of Losing Refineries & Pipelines
The Blueprint for Ensuring California Gasoline Security & Price Stability
Recommended Action Steps
California Energy & Fuel Policies: A Clear and Present Threat to National Security and Force Readiness?
By Michael A. Mische, USC Marshall School of Business | Assemblymember Stan Ellis | Michael Ariza, Petroleum Professional & U.S. Navy Veteran | October 2025
California’s energy future is not just a state concern, it’s a matter of national security. In this groundbreaking research, Professor Michael A. Mische examines how the state’s aggressive energy transition policies are creating vulnerabilities in the fuel supply chain that supports both California’s economy and the U.S. military.
Drawing on public data, defense fuel logistics, and state policy analysis, the paper warns that California’s current trajectory may compromise military readiness, national fuel resilience, and U.S. war doctrine. Mische calls for a coordinated response between federal and state policymakers to ensure fuel security and operational stability for critical defense operations.
This research was first unveiled at CFCA’s National Security Reception during the CA/DC Energy Summit, underscoring the growing national implications of California’s energy policies.
A Study of Gasoline Prices
By Michael A. Mische | March 2025
California’s persistently high gasoline prices are routinely followed by accusations of price gouging by refiners. This research aims to uncover the facts behind this accusation and provide data-driven clarity on what is really driving prices by addressing four essential questions:
“Why are retail gasoline prices in California so high?”
What factors contribute to gasoline production and distribution costs in California, and to what extent do those factors influence retail gasoline prices?
To what extent, if any, is there price gouging, profiteering, and or a ‘mystery surcharge’ placed on the California consumer by the refiner?
To what extent have legislation and regulation influenced the gasoline retail prices in California?
Reports
Californians and the Energy Transition
By Public Policy Institute of California | August 2025
Most Californians support the state’s goals for reducing greenhouse gases and the transition to renewable energy sources. But economic and political headwinds are limiting their endorsement of state policies and their participation in the changes needed to achieve these goals. Over the past 20 years, the PPIC Statewide Survey has been tracking Californians’ attitudes toward climate change policies. Today, while we see continued support for issues related to the state’s energy transition, we also see growing concern.
